Dollar
in sentence
3262 examples of Dollar in a sentence
In this environment, the pass-through of
dollar
movements into non-fuel US import prices is one of the lowest in the world, in both the short term (one quarter out) and the longer term (two years out), for three key reasons.
First, international trade contracts are renegotiated infrequently, which means that
dollar
prices are “sticky” for an extended period – around ten months – despite fluctuations in the exchange rate.
Second, because most exporters also import intermediate inputs that are priced in dollars, exchange-rate fluctuations have a limited impact on their costs and thus on their incentive to change
dollar
prices.
And, third, exporters who wish to preserve their share in world markets – where prices are largely denominated in dollars – choose to keep their
dollar
prices stable, to avoid falling victim to idiosyncratic exchange-rate movements.
A sharp 10% appreciation of the US dollar, for example, would reduce inflation for non-fuel imports by 4.4% cumulatively over the next 2-3 quarters, but would have only a negligible impact on inflation after that point.
Because the
dollar
prices of most of these countries’ imports are not very responsive to exchange-rate movements, the pass-through of those movements into import prices denominated in their home currencies is close to 100%.
The euro might seem like a strong contender, given the volume of trade among eurozone countries; but, outside Europe, the currency is not used nearly as widely as the
dollar.
But while it is true that some global developments – especially falling commodity prices, and perhaps also slowing emerging-economy growth and rising financial volatility – may push down inflation,
dollar
appreciation will not, at least not in any meaningful way.
A stronger
dollar
thus is not a legitimate reason to delay the normalization of US interest rates.
Until this spring, most observers had assumed that the share of the
dollar
in international reserves would gradually fall, while that of the euro would rise, and that the world would gradually and smoothly make a transition to a multi-reserve regime.
The shares of the major reserve currencies were stable, with the
dollar
accounting for 62% of foreign-exchange reserves in 2009 and the euro 27%.
Any major changes came not from deliberate decisions by central banks to reallocate reserves, but rather from the simple arithmetic of changing exchange rates: a stronger
dollar
raised the dollar’s share in total global reserves, while a weaker
dollar
reduced it.
But America’s large fiscal deficit, along with continuing uncertainty about its financial markets, mean that the
dollar
is also potentially vulnerable.
American policymakers expended considerable effort devising ways to support the pound, because they knew that the same factors that made the pound vulnerable also threatened the
dollar.
Unlike the
dollar
and the pound, the yen and the Deutschemark did not depend on attracting foreign inflows.
First, Macri’s government abolished exchange-rate controls and moved Argentina to a floating currency regime, with the Argentine peso allowed to depreciate by 60% against the US
dollar
in 2016.
In just 18 months, the rial’s exchange rate against the
dollar
has fallen by two-thirds.
Given increased
dollar
revenues and easy access to dollars, the government was able to maintain a fixed nominal exchange rate.
Since then, the renminbi has depreciated by 6% against the
dollar.
But that is because the
dollar
itself has appreciated by 7% on a broad average basis against its trading partners’ currencies.
Macroeconomic theory predicts that such policies will drive up interest rates, attract capital from abroad, and strengthen the
dollar.
But even if they don’t, measures that make it harder for foreign exporters to earn dollars will create a
dollar
scarcity, which, in an environment of floating exchange rates, will automatically boost the greenback’s value.
Trump’s escalation of the trade war over the course of 2018 appears to have had the effect on the
dollar
predicted by economic theory.
To slow the renminbi’s depreciation, the PBOC recently signaled that it will apply a so-called counter-cyclical factor in its daily “fixing” of the currency against the
dollar.
At the same time, the outside world will be looking especially carefully at what, if anything, officials plan to do if the
dollar
continues to sink.
Though exchange rates are notoriously unpredictable, the best guess is that a slow unwinding of the massive US trade deficit will keep the
dollar
on a path of gradual long-term decline.
But the fact that several Asian and emerging-market countries are resisting this decline by buying dollars is putting inordinate pressures on the more flexible currencies, such as the euro and the Canadian dollar, which are trading at record levels.
The Federal Reserve would be forced to lower interest rates further, making the
dollar
even less attractive, and the concomitant shift in global demand away from the US, marked by a sharp decline in the US trade balance, would put still more pressure on the
dollar.
According to my own calculations in a series of research papers with Maurice Obstfeld, the trade-weighted
dollar
would likely fall by 20% if a global demand shift (say, due to a US housing recession) were to cut the US trade deficit in half.
Today 9.1% of the world’s population, or almost 700 million people, live on less than $1.90 per day (or what used to be one
dollar
in 1985).
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