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Recently, the US National Intelligence Council published four widely different scenarios for the world in 2020: Davos World, in which economic globalization continues, but with a more Asian face;Pax Americana, where the US continues to dominate the global order;New Caliphate, where Islamic religious identity challenges the dominance of western norms; and Cycle of Fear, in which non-state forces create shocks to security that produce Orwellian societies.
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